EPL game preview: Burnley vs Bournemouth

April 5, 2019 10:29 am

AFC Bournemouth and Burnley go head-to-head this Saturday at Vitality Stadium in Premier League action. AccuScore sim data shows quite a bit of added side value in this match.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.

Dafabet Odds

Team to Win (Regular Time)
Bournemouth: 2.11
Draw: 3.61
Burnley FC: 3.58
Spread
Bournemouth -0.5: 2.12
Burnley FC +0.5: 1.82
Total
Over 2.5: 1.87
Under 2.5: 2.03
What to Watch For

Betting on the Draw: Odds indicate there’s a 27.7 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in under 21 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting no added side value on the draw.

The average score after 10,000 simulations is 2.27 – 0.94, in favor of Bournemouth.

Both Sides to Score: Both teams have scored in seven of Burnley’s last nine Premier League matches.

Building Momentum: Burnley’s win last week should give them some added energy and momentum. Bournemouth are stronger at home than they are on the road, though.

Head to Head: In their last six matchups, Bournemouth has 2 wins, Burnley has 3, with one draw.

Projected Leaders

Ashley Barnes has a 22-to-23 percent chance to score for Burnley. He averages 1.26 shots overall, 0.5 shots on goal per sim, and 0.26 goals per.

For Bournemouth, we’ll have our eyes on Callum Wilson who has a 47 percent chance to score. He averages 2.6 shots overall per sim, 1.06 shots on goal per and 0.65 goals per sim.

Analyst’s Pick

Bournemouth -0.5

Odds indicate there’s a 47 percent chance Bournemouth win this match. That happens in 65-to-66 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some side value. Average margin of victory for Bournemouth in sims is +1.33 goals. This is a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick.