February 20, 2019 12:53 pm
We’ve got a must-watch this week as Atletico Madrid and Juventus go head-to-head in the Champions League. Both sides have lost recently in the finals of the tournament, and now meet in the round of 16. Atletico welcomes Juventus to the Estadio Metropolitano.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Atletico Madrid: 2.84
• Draw: 3.07
• Juventus: 2.83
• Atletico Madrid -0.5: 2.38
• Juventus +0.5: 1.65
• Over 2: 1.96
• Under 2: 1.94
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds indicate there’s a 32.5 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in under 25 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting no added side value on the draw.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 1.86 – 1.13, in favor of Juventus.
Some Background: Atletico is in the round of 16 for the fifth time in the last six seasons. They have won four of their five round of 16 ties. Their record in two-legged knockout ties vs Italian clubs is 4 wins-4 losses. They have won their last five homes games vs Italian opponents.
Juventus vs Spanish Opponents: Juventus’ record in two-legged ties vs Spanish clubs is 9 wins-7 losses.
Head to Head: These two sides last met in the Champions League in the group stage back in 2014/2015. Atletico won the first leg 1-0 at their former home stadium, and finished the second game in a goalless draw, resulting in Atletico placing in first place in the group standings. Juventus, however, ultimately went farther in the tournament.
Cristiano Ronaldo has a 48 percent chance to score for Juventus in this matchup. He averages 4.63 shots overall, 1.12 shots on goal per and 0.65 goals per sim.
Antoine Griezmann has close to a 42 percent chance to score for Atletico Madrid. Griezmann averages 2.21 shots overall, 1.1 shots on goal per and 0.54 goals per sim.
Odds indicate there’s a 51 percent chance the total combined score goes over 2. The OVER hits in 57 percent of AccuScore sims, a two-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick. The average combined score is 2.99 goals.