EPL Game Preview: West Ham vs Newcastle

March 1, 2019 10:19 am

West Ham and Newcastle clash this weekend at London Stadium. West Ham might have some tired legs with a match against Manchester City Wednesday, making for a quick turnaround to Saturday.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.

Dafabet Picks

Team to Win (Regular Time)
• West Ham: 2.09
• Draw: 3.54
• Newcastle United: 3.72
Spread
• West Ham United -0.5: 2.08
• Newcastle United +0.5: 1.72
Total
• Over 2.5: 1.98
• Under 2.5: 1.92
What to Watch For

Draw: There’s a 28.2 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in 30 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added side value on the draw.

The average score after 10,000 simulations is 1.27 – 1.15, in favor of West Ham.

Change of Scenery: Newcastle’s Miguel Almiron reportedly turned down opportunities with Arsenal and Southampton. He set the club’s all-time record for transfer fee this past January, previously playing with Atlanta FC. Will he have the same production we saw in MLS?

Goals from Counter Attack: West Ham ranks No. 9 in the Premier League with 3 goals this season from a counter attack; Newcastle is No. 19 in the league with 1 such goal.

Head to Head: Newcastle and West Ham matched up in Premier League action back in December 2018 when West Ham won, 3-0.

Projected Leaders

Miguel Almiron has a 27-to-28 percent chance to net the ball for Newcastle. He averages 3.19 shots overall, 1.29 shots on goal per and 0.32 goals per sim.

Javier Hernández has a 31 percent chance to score for West Ham. Hernández averages 1.25 shots overall per sim, 0.69 shots on goal per and 0.37 goals per sim.

Analyst’s Pick

The UNDER.

There’s a 52 percent chance the total combined score stays below 2.5. The under hits in over 57 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added side value on the pick. The average combined score in AccuScore sims is 2.42 goals. This is a 4-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick.