February 20, 2019 12:42 pm
Schalke and Manchester City meet this week in Champions League action at Gelsenkirchen for the first leg of their round-of-16 series.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• FC Schalke: 11.11
• Draw: 6.32
• Manchester City: 1.28
• FC Schalke +1.5: 2.19
• Manchester City -1.5: 1.77
• Over 3: 1.89
• Under 3: 2.01
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds indicate there’s a 16 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in 22 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added side value on the draw.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 2.2 – 0.85, in favor of Man City.
Back in the Tourney: This is Schalke’s first appearance in the round of 16 since 2014-2015. They lost 5-4 aggregate that year to Real Madrid. Overall, Schalke have won just two of their last five round of 16 ties in the Champions League.
Building Momentum: Man City have been in the Champions League round of 16 on an annual basis since 2013-2014. This is City’s second match in a row vs an opponent from Bundesliga; they have six wins and 1 draw in their last seven vs Bundesliga opponents.
Head to Head: City have won two of the last three fixtures between them and Schalke, most recently a 2-0 success in Gelsenkirchen in the 2008/09 UEFA Cup group stage.
Sergio Agüero has a 45 percent chance to score for Man City. He averages 2.9 shots overall per sim, 0.96 shots on goal per and 0.61 goals per sim.
Breel Embolo has a 20 percent chance to score for Schalke. He averages 2.61 shots overall per sim, 0.91 shots on goal per and 0.22 goals per sim.
Odds indicate a 45-to-46 percent chance that Schalke either loses by fewer than 2 goals, wins, or finishes in a draw. They either win or finish in a draw in close to 34 percent of AccuScore sims, with Man City’s average margin of victory being +1.35 goals. While Man City is still the favorite, AccuScore does project the game to be closer than offshore odds indicate.